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24-04-2026
DUBAI: A warning by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has crystallized fears among Gulf States that reopening the Strait of Hormuz may be the most Iran-US talks can achieve, falling short of the broader de-escalation they regard as vital.
Officials and analysts expect the next round of negotiations, due in Islamabad, will focus increasingly not on Iran’s missiles or regional proxies but on uranium enrichment limits and how to handle Iran’s leverage over the Strait, the world’s most critical oil shipping route.
Gulf officials warn the approach risks entrenching Iran’s grip on Middle East energy supplies by managing rather than dismantling its leverage, prioritizing global economic stability even while leaving the countries most exposed to the energy and security consequences outside formal decision-making.
Gulf sources say US–Iran diplomacy is now centered less on rolling back Iran’s missile program and more on enrichment levels and tacitly accepting Tehran’s leverage over Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global oil supplies.
Although negotiations remain stalled over enrichment, with Iran rejecting both zero enrichment and demands to ship its stockpiles abroad, Gulf officials say the shift in priorities itself is troubling.
“At the end of the day, Hormuz will be the red line,” one Gulf source close to government circles said. “It wasn’t an issue before. It is now. The goal posts have moved.”
There was no immediate response from Gulf Arab governments to requests for comment on the issues raised in this article.
Iran’s threats to Gulf shipping during the war have broken long‑standing taboos around the Strait, making its disruption a realistic lever in negotiations for the first time.
Hormuz’s central role was bluntly articulated by Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, in a post on social media on April 8.
“It’s not clear how the truce between Washington and Tehran will play out,” Medvedev said but “one thing is certain Iran has tested its nuclear weapons. It is called the Strait of Hormuz. Its potential is inexhaustible.”
The remark cast Hormuz as leverage enabling Iran to raise costs and shape rules without crossing the nuclear threshold.
Hormuz is a ‘golden asset’, says Iranian Security Source
Iranian security officials privately echo that view, describing the Strait not as a contingency but as a long‑prepared instrument of deterrence.
“Iran prepared for years for a scenario involving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, planning every step,” said a senior Iranian security source. “Today it is one of Iran’s most effective tools, a form of geographic leverage that serves as a powerful deterrent.”
The source described the Strait as a “golden, invaluable asset rooted in Iran’s geography one the world cannot take away precisely because it flows from Iran’s location.”
A second Iranian source, close to the Revolutionary Guards, went further, suggesting that a long‑standing taboo surrounding the use of Hormuz had now been broken.
This source described Hormuz as a sword “drawn from its sheath” that the US and regional states could not ignore, providing the region with leverage against external powers. What alarms Gulf Arab states most, analysts say, is that while Iranian missiles, drones and proxies have repeatedly attacked their region, negotiations are increasingly framed almost exclusively around Hormuz because of its global economic impact, marginalizing Gulf security concerns. (Int’l Monitoring Desk)
