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30-03-2026
BEIRUT: War between Israel and Hezbollah is pushing Lebanon’s fragile state and society towards breaking point, straining sectarian and political fault-lines as Shi’ite Muslims are displaced and enmity deepens between the Iran-backed group and its opponents.
Of all Lebanon’s many crises since a 1975-90 civil war, the renewed conflict ignited by the Iran war could be its most destabilizing, Lebanese analysts and figures from across the political spectrum say.
Israel has threatened Gaza-like destruction and an occupation of the south and there are acrid splits in Lebanon over Hezbollah’s weapons, which the group has refused to give up despite a year-long effort by the state to disarm it peacefully.
Israeli bombardment and orders for people to leave have driven Hezbollah’s Shi’ite constituents into Christian, Druze and other areas, where many blame the group for starting a war in support of Tehran only 15 months after the last one.
Local authorities are vetting displaced people seeking rented accommodation, fearing the presence of anyone who might be a target for Israel.
Tensions between Hezbollah and the government are worsening. The administration led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun has banned Hezbollah’s military wing, called for talks with Israel and demanded Iran’s ambassador leave.
Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qmati has compared the government to the Vichy France leaders sentenced to death for collaborating with Nazi Germany in World War Two.
“We are capable of turning the country upside down,” he told a Lebanese media outlet although he later said his remarks were taken out of context.
Druze lawmaker Wael Abu Faour says internal tensions are increasing because of political divisions over the war and displacement and “the defiant rhetoric from more than one side”. “This exacerbates fears for internal stability,” he said.
More than 1,000 people have been killed in Lebanon and over a million more than a fifth of the population have been displaced, most of them Shi’ite Muslims, since Hezbollah fired at Israel on March 2 and Israel hit back.
A foreign official said the displacement was straining communal ties and would be “a ticking bomb” if the displaced cannot go home.
Israel’s military has ordered people to leave much of the south as well as Beirut’s Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs and the group’s heartlands in eastern Lebanon. Israel’s defence minister has said his country intends to create a “security zone” up to the Litani River, which meets the sea about 30 km (19 miles) north of the border with Israel. He has said hundreds of thousands of Shi’ites will not return south of the Litani until security is ensured for northern Israel.
Nadim Gemayel, a Christian lawmaker opposed to Hezbollah, expressed concern that Israel was deliberately pushing Shi’ites into other parts of Lebanon to create conflict with other communities.
Hezbollah has long been at odds with many other Lebanese factions and has an arsenal more potent than the army’s.
During a brief civil war in 2008, when a Western-backed government tried to outlaw Hezbollah’s communications network, Hezbollah fighters took over Beirut. The government backed down. Gemayel said tension “already exists, but the ignition hasn’t happened yet and I hope that it will never happen”.
“If the Israelis stay long, very long in the south, this will be catastrophic for everyone…Lebanon cannot assimilate such a displacement of people,” he said, urging the Lebanese government to “disarm Hezbollah and terminate this war”. (Int’l News Desk)
