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10-08-2025
WASHINGTON/ LONDON: From punishing Brazil to trying to curb imports of fentanyl, US President Donald Trump has wielded the threat of tariffs as an all-purpose foreign policy weapon.
With a Friday deadline for Russia to agree to peace in Ukraine or have its oil customers face secondary tariffs, Trump has found a novel but risky, use for his favorite trade tool.
The administration took a step toward punishing Moscow’s customers on Wednesday, imposing an additional 25% tariff on goods from India over its imports of Russian oil, marking the first financial penalty aimed at Russia in Trump’s second term.
No order has been signed for China, the top Russian oil importer but a White House official said on Wednesday secondary measures that Trump has threatened against countries buying the petroleum were expected on Friday.
These are the latest in a string of Trump’s tariff threats on non-trade issues such as pressing Denmark to give the US control of Greenland, attempting to stop fentanyl deliveries from Mexico and Canada, and penalizing Brazil over what he described as a “witch hunt” against former President Jair Bolsonaro.
While secondary tariffs could inflict pain on the Russian economy, severing a top source of funding for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war effort, they also carry costs for Trump.
Oil prices will likely rise, creating political problems for him before next year’s US midterm congressional elections. The tariffs would also complicate the administration’s efforts to secure trade deals with China and India.
For his part, Putin has signaled that Russia is prepared to weather any new economic hardship imposed by the US and its allies.
There is “close to zero chance” Putin will agree to a ceasefire due to Trump’s threats of tariffs and sanctions on Russia, said Eugene Rumer, a former US intelligence analyst for Russia who directs the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Russia and Eurasia Program.
“Theoretically if you cut off Indian and Chinese purchases of oil that would be a very heavy blow to the Russian economy and to the war effort but that isn’t going to happen,” he said, adding that the Chinese have signaled they will keep buying Russia’s oil.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The Russian embassy in Washington did not immediately respond.
Secondary tariffs would hurt Russia, the world’s second leading oil exporter. The West has pressured Russia since late 2022 with a price cap on its oil exports, intended to erode Russia’s ability to fund the war. That cap has piled costs on Russia as it forced it to reroute oil exports from Europe to India and China, which have been able to import huge amounts of it at discounted prices but the cap also kept oil flowing to global markets.
In an early sign that Putin hopes to avoid the tariffs, the White House said that Putin and Trump could meet as soon as next week, following a meeting between US envoy Steve Witkoff and the Russian leader on Wednesday but some analysts are skeptical that Moscow is ready to stop the war.
Brett Bruen, former foreign policy adviser for former President Barack Obama now head of the Global Situation Room consultancy, cautioned that Putin has found ways to evade sanctions and other economic penalties and even if tariffs and sanctions cut into Russia’s revenues, Putin is not under much domestic pressure. (Int’l Monitoring Desk)
