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23-03-2026
JERUSALEM/ WASHINGTON/ TEHRAN: From soaring heating oil bills for homes in Yorkshire to bill-saving school closures in Pakistan, the financial fallout from the war in the Middle East is already being keenly felt.
It is increasingly clear that the impact of Tehran’s retaliation, designed to trigger economic disruption and damage, may not be fleeting. Moreover, it’s very uneven.
Alongside a hefty catalogue of those who risk being hard hit, there are some who are benefiting. So who are they?
Winners: Norway, Canada and Russia
For all the efforts to pursue renewable energy, we remain hugely reliant on oil and gas. Plentiful reserves tend to promise great riches, hence crude has been labelled “black gold”. When prices rise, producers are typically quids in, while users are out of pocket but this is not your usual oil price shock.
The Middle East remains the heart of supply, the Strait of Hormuz its main artery.
The impact of a de facto blockage and attacks on energy infrastructure in the region has hit Gulf producers like Qatar and Saudi Arabia hard, as Tehran targets America’s allies.
As customers seek alternative sources, it’s the likes of Norway and Canada who may gain.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and when many countries sought to move away from relying on Russian gas, Norway was able to ramp up production and take advantage.
Meanwhile, Canada’s Energy Minister Tim Hodgson has been quick to position his nation as “a stable, reliable, predictable, values-based producer of energy”, but there are questions about how much it can raise production.
Instead, it’s Russia that could be the biggest winner. As Washington relaxes the rules to ease the global supply crunch, Russia’s crude oil sales to India have jumped by 50%.
Some estimates say that Moscow could earn up to $5bn (£3.7bn) more by the end of March, and could be on track for its biggest year of fuel-related revenues since 2022.
America risks handing Moscow a hefty windfall at the expense of Gulf nations. There are other potential gainers too.
As some countries ramp up their use of coal, it is a tantalizing opportunity for big exporters such as Indonesia, as the price of that fuel also rises.
Losers: US, UK and Europe
What of the US itself? President Donald Trump says that when oil goes up, the US “makes a lot of money”.
Certainly, American oil producers could be on track to make tens of billions of dollars of extra revenues this year if crude prices remain around current levels but that doesn’t make the US a net winner.
Firstly, because some producers are heavily exposed to disruption in the Middle East. ExxonMobil, for instance, has operations at Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial hub, where production has been shut down since early March and which has now been hit by Iranian missile attacks, causing “extensive damage”.
Secondly, after years of cutting back capacity in the face of dwindling wholesale prices, many shale producers can’t ramp up output quickly.
And most important of all; on a per person basis, Americans are the biggest users of oil and gas on the planet.
From cranking up the heat in the harsh Midwest winters, to fueling the driving season, they are heavily exposed to the fluctuating price of fossil fuels.
Economists at Oxford Economics warn that if oil prices were to surge to $140 – and stay there, the economy risks shrinking. (Int’l News Desk)
