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28-04-2022
PARIS/ KYIV/ MOSCOW: Emmanuel Macron’s victory in securing a second term as France’s president will enable him to adopt a more aggressive approach on the Ukraine-Russia conflict, analysts say.
In the run-up to the presidential election held earlier this month, Macron eschewed campaigning in favour of shuttle diplomacy, regularly meeting presidents on both sides, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenksyy and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Despite failing to broker peace, Macron’s cultivated role of a statesman ultimately worked in his favour.
He secured 58.6 percent, compared with far-right Marine Le Pen, his main political rival who has previously enjoyed warm relations with Putin, who took 41.5 percent.
Samuel Ramani, a doctoral candidate in international relations at the University of Oxford’s St Antony’s College, believes that Macron will transform his rhetoric into action, as well as double down on diplomatic efforts.
“Now that Le Pen has lost, Macron will push for a full energy embargo, as he has already said that France doesn’t depend on Russian gas,” he told Al Jazeera.
The French president will also “build on recent heavy artillery transfers to Ukraine and the 100 million euros [$106m] in arms sent in the first two months of the war”.
With the election pressure gone, Macron “will have more freedom to engage with Putin diplomatically while making French policy towards Russia tougher”, he added.
As France currently holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, Macron’s re-election could also strengthen NATO and EU positions against Russia.
“Macron has also sustained EU integration and is one of the main sponsors of a common defence strategy, and the current conflict is an important test for his vision,” said Pierluigi Paganini, a cybersecurity and intelligence expert in Italy.
“Macron always sustained the autonomy of the EU, and states that its operation has to complement NATO’s territorial defence.” (Int’l Monitoring Desk)
