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23-10-2024
OTTAWA/ MEXICO CITY/ NEW YORK: As Americans prepare to vote for their next president, Canadians and Mexicans are watching on nervously.
For some Canadians living next to the US border, politics isn’t a topic often discussed.
“You don’t talk politics and you don’t talk religion,” says 85-year-old Ernie, who lives in the Canadian town of Fort Erie, just across the Niagara River from Buffalo, New York.
Yet for others in Fort Erie, Ontario, politics can come up, especially after a few beers, and with a US presidential election fast approaching.
A short walk from the Peace Bridge that connects the two countries is Southside Patio Bar & Grill, where US-born bartender Lauren says she frequently has to break up political arguments.
“It happens, especially after a few drinks. Everybody’s voice is heard here,” she laughs while shaking her head.
Some 2,000 miles (3,200 km) southwest in the Mexican border city of Juarez, Sofia Ana is in the Monday morning queue of cars waiting to cross to El Paso, Texas for work.
“There’s better employment opportunities in the US, there’s better benefits,” she explains Ana is one of an estimated 500,000 Mexicans who legally cross the border into the US every week day.
It is in their interest that relations between the two countries remain cordial. “It affects us deeply… it is very intense,” adds Ana from her car window.
With more than 155 million Americans due to vote in the US presidential election on 5 November, it is fair to say that the outcome will be felt well beyond the US. No more so than its largest trading partners Canada and Mexico.
The two-way trade of goods between the US and Mexico totaled $807bn (£621bn) last year, making Mexico the US’s biggest trading partner when it comes to physical items.
Meanwhile, the US’s goods trade with Canada in 2023 was in second place on $782bn. By comparison the figure for the US and China was $576bn.
Mexico and Canada’s future trade with the US could be impacted if Donald Trump wins the US election. This is because he is proposing to introduce substantial import tariffs. These would be 60% for goods from China, and 20% on products from all other countries, apparently including Mexico and Canada.
By contrast, Kamala Harris is widely expected to maintain the current more open trade policies of President Biden. This is despite the fact she voted against the 2020 United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) free trade deal, saying it didn’t go far enough on tackling climate change.
Trump and Harris have “starkly different visions for the future of US economic relations with the world”, said one study in September.
Back in Juarez, shop owner Adrian Ramos says that US political instability is something business owners like himself have had to get used to. “We’ve seen it all,” he says.
Ramos adds that the result in the US on 5 November will likely impact on his business whoever wins. “If Trump wins, it’s going to take longer to cross over to the States, if Harris wins, it may not, but there will be changes depending on who wins.”
“The worry with Trump is that he’ll introduce a policy (such as tariffs), and just say ‘get on with it’ and that is threatening,” says Braden, standing between hay bales in front of one of his cattle fields. (Int’l Monitoring Desk)
