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03-02-2024
By SJA Jafri + Bureau Report + Agencies
ISLAMABAD/ LAHORE/ KARACHI: First, the fundamentals: In Pakistan, the election cycle is not the only process to be watched when determining the future political direction of the country; the cycle of the appointments of, and extensions granted to, the army chief is of equal and sometimes greater importance.
That is because Pakistan’s chequered political history is the tale of a push and pull between civilian politicians and the military establishment; ground is gained and ceded and relations span the spectrum of cooperation, co-optation and confrontation sometimes within the same tenure and all depending on who is the current face of the civilian regime and who is heading the establishment. Nothing is a monolith, after all but inevitably, a falling-out does tend to take place and that is because, in Pakistan, much as in Tolkien’s Middle-earth, there is only one Lord of the Rings, and he does not like to share power. His influence may ebb at times, and he may even go into hibernation for years, but eventually, the true lord always returns. To shift fictional universes for a moment, one could say that the empire always strikes back, and usually with a vengeance.
Right now, that vengeance is on full, naked, display with just about every trick in the book, traditional and brand-new, being used to decimate the former governing party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
It is not quite the death of a thousand cuts more like a dozen or so and it is designed to whittle the party down to nothing before the elections.
This week, former Prime Minister Imran Khan was sentenced to 10 years and 14 years in jail in two consecutive cases and has been barred from holding public office for a decade. Many legal experts have called the proceedings hasty and in violation of due process, while also pointing out that the sentences are draconian and disproportionate.
However, the very questionable conduct of these cases also allows for the convictions and sentences to be struck down during the appeal process, leaving the door open for a “redeemed” and “acceptable” Khan to rejoin the political fray once it becomes convenient for the state to allow this. Whether he will play ball at any time in the future is an open question, but we have seen this particular drama unfold a few times before, with today’s villains becoming tomorrow’s heroes; the script tends to remain the same even if the actors change.
Many other PTI leaders have also been imprisoned along with a host of party workers, most of whom were arrested in the aftermath of the events of May 9, 2023, when military installations were attacked during protests against the army that turned violent. The PTI claims it was a false flag event while the establishment as the military in Pakistan is euphemistically known and its allies insist it was an attempt to cause a mutiny in the ranks of the military. The truth, as usual, likely lies somewhere in the middle.
