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18-12-2024
Bureau Report
NEW DELHI/ BENGALURU: India’s private sector output grew at the fastest pace in four months, preliminary readings from a survey showed, helping the economy end 2024 on a positive note underpinned by sturdier demand in services and manufacturing and record jobs growth.
Asia’s third-largest economy grew a softer 5.4% last quarter, but easing inflation is expected to spur demand among private sector firms, improving the outlook for next year.
Monday’s HSBC’s December flash India Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), opens new tab, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 60.7 this month matching August’s reading after dropping to 58.6 in November.
The 50-level separates growth from contraction and the business activity index has been above 60 in all but three months this year. Such strength hasn’t been seen since 2008 when the global financial crisis hit, suggesting strong private sector expansion.
“The small rise in the headline manufacturing PMI in December was mainly driven by gains in current production, new orders and employment,” said Ines Lam, economist at HSBC.
“The expansion in new domestic orders quickened, suggesting a pick-up in growth momentum in the economy.”
A stronger rise in demand was mainly reflected in the PMI for the dominant services sector, which rose to a four-month high of 60.8 from 58.4 in November, while the index for manufacturing was 57.4, up from 56.5 last month.
Service providers led the rise in sales with the new business sub-index touching the highest since January. Improving international demand for goods and services also boosted sales with the former recording a faster increase than the latter.
That improved the business outlook for 2025 and overall optimism rose to its highest since September last year and prompted companies to ramp up hiring additional staff at the fastest pace since the survey began in late 2005.
Both manufacturing and services posted a new peak for employment generation.
Inflationary pressures eased in December after two consecutive months of steeper rises. However, firms again increased selling prices albeit at a slower pace than November’s near 12-year high.
That will provide some relief to newly appointed Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra after consumer inflation came in lower than expected at 5.48% last month with economists betting on a rate cut in February 2025, a social poll found.
India’s retail inflation eased in November as soaring vegetable prices moderated, boosting expectations of an interest rate cut by the central bank at its next policy review amid concerns around slowing growth.
Retail inflation, opens new tab eased in November to 5.48%, lower than 6.21% in the previous month and below a 5.53% forecast by economists in a poll.
Food inflation slowed down to 9.04% from 10.87% a month earlier. Food accounts for nearly half of the consumption basket.
Vegetable prices rose 29.33% in November from a year earlier after rising 42.18% in October.
The decline in inflation, together with a sharp fall in growth in the July to September quarter to a seven-quarter low, supports expectations of a rate cut in February when the monetary policy committee meets next. The meeting would be the first after the appointment of new central bank governor Sanjay Malhotra.
