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11-04-2024
Bureau Report + Agencies
NEW DELHI: India is expected to see a normal monsoon in 2024, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said on Tuesday, promising some respite after a prediction of more-than-normal heat wave days in the summer preceding the June-September rainy season.
Monsoon rains are expected to be 102% of the long-period average of 868.6 mm for the four-month period, Skymet said.
The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted that in the April-June period, various parts of the country could record 10-20 heat wave days compared to the normal four to eight days.
Nearly half of India’s farmland, which has no irrigation cover, depends on the annual June-September rains to grow crops such as rice, corn, cane, cotton and soybeans.
“El Nino is swiftly flipping over to La Nina. And, monsoon circulation inclines to be stronger during La Nina years,” Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet, said in a statement.
The weather forecaster expects “sufficiently good rains” in southern, western and north-western parts of the country.
Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh in the north together make the farm bowl of north India.
Meanwhile, India is likely to experience more heat-wave days than normal between April and June, the weather office said on Monday, potentially hitting agricultural production and hampering government efforts to bring down food inflation.
A heat wave for the third year in a row could dent production of wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas, and also lift power demand above supply during the summer season. India is the world’s second largest wheat producer.
In the April-June period various parts of the country could record 10 to 20 heat-wave days compared to the normal four to eight days, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told a virtual news conference.
The extreme weather could also impact India’s parliamentary election, the world’s largest, which is being held over nearly seven weeks from April 19th. Nearly one billion people will be eligible to vote and election campaigning has already begun.
Voters will be exposed to the heat waves and will need to take precautions according to the various advisories already issued, said Kiren Rijiju, India’s minister for earth sciences.
“During the election in India, people will come out for election rallies, meetings…..There will be heavy activity all across the country,” Rijiju said.
In April, the crucial month for winter-sown crops coming to maturity, above normal maximum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, said Mohapatra of IMD.
Most of the wheat harvested during this period is in the central state of Madhya Pradesh, while in northern states the crop is in the grain formation stage and the harvesting comes later, he said.
A heat wave curtailed India’s wheat production in 2022, forcing it to ban exports.
Power demand usually spikes during the summer season and to ensure undisrupted supplies, power generation stations’ maintenance schedule has been either deferred or has already been completed, said a government official.
