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03-09-2024
Bureau Report + Agencies
NEW DELHI/ MUMBAI: India is forecast to receive above-average rainfall in September after surplus rains in August, the weather department said on Saturday.
The rainfall in September is likely to be more than 109% of a 50-year average, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department, told a virtual news conference.
Above-normal rainfall could damage summer-sown crops, such as rice, cotton, soybean, corn, and pulses, which are typically harvested from mid-September.
Crop damage can lead to food inflation but the rains may also result in higher soil moisture, benefiting the planting of winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpea.
India, the world’s second-largest producer of wheat, sugar, and rice, has imposed various curbs on the export of these farm commodities, and any losses due to excessive rainfall could prompt New Delhi to extend those curbs.
After receiving 9% more rainfall in July, India had 15.3% more rainfall than average in August as the north-western and central region of the country received heavy rainfall, which led to flooding in some states.
The country has recorded 6.9% more rainfall than average since the start of the monsoon season on June 1.
The lifeblood of a nearly $3.5-trillion economy, the annual monsoon brings almost 70% of the rain India needs to water farms and replenish reservoirs and aquifers. Without irrigation, nearly half the farmland in the country depends on the rains that usually run from June to September.
The monsoon generally starts to retreat by mid-September from the northwestern state of Rajasthan, ending across the country by mid-October.
However, the forecast for September indicates that this year’s withdrawal could be delayed.
“Forecast for September suggests that good rainfall activity over Rajasthan and Gujarat starts about 15th September. Nowadays, if you look at, the withdrawal is getting delayed,” Mohapatra said.
By mid-September, summer-sown crops become ready for harvesting, and rainfall during this time could damage the ripe crops, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.
India is set to witness a continuation of the above-normal rainfall that characterized August as the country enters the final month of the monsoon season, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Addressing a virtual press conference, IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said precipitation is expected to be more than 109% of the long-term average of 167.9 millimetres (6.6 inches). According to Mohapatra, most parts of India are expected to receive above-normal rainfall in September.
The above-average rainfall could not only brighten prospects for a bumper harvest for crops such as rice and soybeans but also increase water levels in major reservoirs, setting the stage for good winter crops, such as wheat and rapeseed.
The ample soil moisture expected in the coming weeks is vital for farm output and economic stability, especially in a nation where a large portion of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihood, as per a Bloomberg report.
Higher crop yields could help ease food inflation, which saw a rise of 5.4% in July, and might lead the government to relax restrictions on rice and sugar exports.
However, some areas of the country also face the risk of extremely heavy rainfall and floods.
