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29-11-2025
BEIRUT/ JERUSALEM: In the Palestinian refugee camp of Burj al-Barajneh, two men stood on opposite balconies, discussing the recent Israeli attack that killed a senior Hezbollah operative just over a kilometer away from where they were standing.
A year earlier, the areas around the camp, which is located in Beirut’s southern suburbs, were devastated by Israeli attacks. While the camp was not hit directly, the buildings shook so badly from nearby bunker buster bombs that many fled out of fear they might collapse.
Last November’s ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, after a year of conflict, brought a reprieve for many here, even though Israeli attacks continue across the south and parts of eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. Sunday’s attack, however, has left many in the country worried that another intensification may soon take place.
Standing on his balcony, a man in his mid-30s called over to his neighbor, “Do you think they’ll launch a wider war?”
The other, a stocky man with greying hair, shrugged with uncertainty. “May God protect us,” he said, before turning around and heading inside his apartment.
Retaliation would be suicide
Last year’s war left deep scars on Lebanon.
Many villages in the south were razed to the ground during the fighting, while others suffered heavily from Israeli destruction during the ceasefire period. More than 4,000 people in Lebanon have been killed since October 2023, mostly from September to November of last year, and more than 1.2 million people were displaced. Many have yet to return to their homes, even a year later. The World Bank estimated Israel left Lebanon with approximately $11bn in needs for reconstruction and recovery.
The war also left Hezbollah, a Lebanese political and military group, badly weakened. In August, under United States and Israeli pressure, the Lebanese government approved a plan to have the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) disarm the group but the group has rejected calls for its disarmament based on Israel’s failure to uphold its side of the ceasefire. Israel has not withdrawn from at least five points it occupies in south Lebanon, nor has it stopped its near-daily attacks on the country’s territory, killing more than 120 civilians since last year’s ceasefire was announced.
Meanwhile, this latest attack has come amid warnings from Israeli officials and reports in the country’s media of a military escalation in Lebanon. Israeli officials claim Hezbollah is regrouping and blame the Lebanese government and LAF for failing to move quickly enough to disarm the group.
Senior Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qomati said the latest strike crossed a “red line” and that the party’s leadership was considering a response.
Analysts, however, say the group is not currently in a position to attack Israel. In addition to its losses as an organization, Lebanon’s Shia Muslim population, the sect from which it derives the majority of its support, also suffered from the indiscriminate nature of Israel’s attacks, and many fear the return of the war.
“Retaliation by Hezbollah would be suicide with no military or political value,” Michael Young, a Lebanese analyst and writer, told media. Young said the Israelis could be “overplaying the threat” of Hezbollah’s regrouping, giving themselves a latitude to do what they want in retaliation to Hezbollah”.
‘We are used to this’
Last Friday, President Joseph Aoun said Lebanon is willing to sit with Israel in internationally-sponsored negotiations. It wasn’t enough to stop Israel’s attack last Sunday.
The atmosphere has left many in Lebanon deeply fearful of another round of intense Israeli attacks. (Int’l News Desk)
